The Aftermath of the February Flood of 1825: Social and Demographic Change in in the Krummhörn Region, East Frisia

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Kai P. Willführ, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg; Josep Sottile Perez, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg

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Project Citation:

Willführ, Kai P., and Sottile Perez, Josep. The Aftermath of the February Flood of 1825: Social and Demographic Change in in the Krummhörn Region, East Frisia. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-12-11. https://doi.org/10.3886/E211423V1

Project Description

Summary: In February 1825, the dikes broke after a spring tide in the Krummhörn region in East Frisia, Germany, causing a severe disaster. Although the flood did not claim many victims, substantial damage was done to the farmland, and the economic crisis that followed permanently changed the social structure in the Krummhörn. We study family reconstitutions of the region linked to information about socioeconomic status, detailed reports of the flood damage, and information on crop prices for the entire study period. We innovate on the literature through our reconstruction of property damage at the parish level, as well as of the economic development in the region, combined with family reconstitutions. We investigate the short-term impact of the flood on marital fertility and child mortality, as well as the long-term impact on age at first childbirth and age at first marriage of individuals who experienced the flood early in life. We use Cox proportional hazard models to study mortality. The timing and the likelihood of transitions are investigated with the help of mixed parametric cure models. We find that child mortality, but not infant mortality, increased in the flood aftermath, but that this increase in mortality was not attributable to the flood-related damage. Furthermore, we find no evidence of changes in the timing of first childbirth or marriage among the affected individuals. These findings contrast with the results of several other studies indicating that external shocks and crisis experience early in life affect life course outcomes.

Funding Sources: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany) (WI 4446/2-1)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: family reconstitution; rye price; flood damage index

Geographic Coverage: Historical Krummhoern Region, East Frisia (Germany)

Time Period(s): 1815 – 1850

Universe:

- Males

- Females

- Childrens

- Infants

Data Type(s): aggregate data; event/transaction data; other; text

Methodology

Response Rate: Anzahl der Beobachtungen in der Studie

Data Source: Voland, Eckart (2016). Family Reconstruction of Krummhoern (East Friesland), 1720-1874. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA8630 Data file Version 1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.4232/1.12643.

Collection Mode(s): other

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V1 [2024-12-11]

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