Data and Code for: The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility in Spain

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Libertad González, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and BSE; Sofia K. Trommlerová, Comenius University Bratislava and CELSI

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Figures_and_Table.do	text/plain	6.5 KB	04/16/2024 12:21:PM
Model_selection.do	text/plain	4.9 KB	04/19/2024 02:05:PM
README.pdf	application/pdf	66.4 KB	04/25/2024 07:35:AM
births_monthly_2009_2021.dta	application/x-stata-dta	6 KB	04/19/2024 02:45:PM
births_monthly_Foreign_2009_2021.dta	application/x-stata-dta	5.5 KB	04/19/2024 02:05:PM
births_monthly_Spanish_2009_2021.dta	application/x-stata-dta	5.5 KB	04/19/2024 02:05:PM

Project Citation:

González, Libertad, and Trommlerová, Sofia K. Data and Code for: The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility in Spain. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2024. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-05-21. https://doi.org/10.3886/E201121V1

Project Description

Summary: We focus on a high-income, low-fertility country Spain and estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. Spain was one of the two most COVID-19-affected countries in Europe and it imposed one of the strictest lockdowns on the continent. We exploit the unexpected announcement and immediate implementation of a strict, nationwide 8-week-long lockdown. We first predict the expected levels of fertility in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown by choosing from 14 competing models based on five cross-validation criteria. Then we calculate the differences between predicted and actual fertility levels 9 months after the lockdown. We find that overall, lockdown had a very negative effect on fertility (-14.6% in the two most affected months) while the post-lockdown relief led to an increased fertility (+5.7% during a 10-month period). The net effect is 1.6% but there is substantial heterogeneity between native (+4.7%) and foreign mothers (-16.9%).

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

Geographic Coverage: Spain

Collection Notes: Administrative records data

Methodology

Data Source: Spanish National Statistical Institute – Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), 2009–2021

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Published Versions

V1 [2024-05-21]

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DDI 2.5

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