Data and Code for: Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Pablo Cuba-Borda, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Sanjay R. Singh, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and University of California Davis

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Replication-AEJMacro-2021-0453_RR_Final			04/05/2024 05:07:PM

Project Citation:

Cuba-Borda, Pablo, and Singh, Sanjay R. . Data and Code for: Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2024. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-06-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E196841V1

Project Description

Summary:

We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypotheses of long-lasting low-interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:Q1-2019:Q4, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expectations trap relies on its ability to generate the observed negative correlation between inflation and output growth.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Expectations-driven trap; secular stagnation; zero lower bound.

JEL Classification:
      E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E52 Monetary Policy

Geographic Coverage: Japan

Time Period(s): 1998 – 2019

Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

V1 [2024-06-12]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.