Unintended Consequences: International Trade Shocks and Electoral Outcomes During the Second Spanish Republic, 1931-1936

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Concepción Betrán, Universitat de València; Michael Huberman, Université de Montréal

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  Replication-files-Trade-shock_Votes 10/30/2023 02:12:PM

Project Citation: 

Betrán, Concepción , and Huberman, Michael. Unintended Consequences: International Trade Shocks and Electoral Outcomes During the Second Spanish Republic, 1931-1936. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-10-30. https://doi.org/10.3886/E194829V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary An intractable domestic conflict between forces on the right and the left roiled the Second Spanish Republic (1931-1939). We claim that international trade shocks exacerbated political instability. Leveraging an exposure design and disaggregated trade and employment data, we study the effects of import and export exposure on vote shares of parties and coalitions in the Republic’s three elections, 1931, 1933, and 1936. Increased import exposure had a modest effect on election outcomes. The primary vector of change was the disruption in export markets caused by the world depression and discriminatory trade practices, most importantly the United Kingdom’s adoption of imperial preference. Trade dislocation harmed the left and benefitted the right. If trade had remained at 1928 levels, our projections show that the Popular Front would have gained a clear and comfortable majority in the decisive 1936 election.

Scope of Project

Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Spain


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Release of this data has been delayed until 10/29/2027 at the request of the depositor.

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V1 [2023-10-30]

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