Data and Code for When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Gene M. Grossman, Princeton University; Elhanan Helpman, Harvard University; Stephen J. Redding, Princeton University

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
calibration			12/03/2023 09:07:AM

Project Citation:

Grossman, Gene M., Helpman, Elhanan, and Redding, Stephen J. Data and Code for When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2024. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-03-01. https://doi.org/10.3886/E193823V1

Project Description

Summary:

We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. Then, the home government surprises with an input tariff. This can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or search for replacements. Calibrating the model's parameters to match initial import shares and the estimated responses to the US tariffs imposed on China, we find an overall welfare loss of 0.12% of GDP, with substantial contributions from changes in input sourcing and search costs.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: global supply chains; global value chains; input tariffs; imported intermediate goods

JEL Classification:
F12 Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

Geographic Coverage: United States of America

Collection Date(s): 1/1/2016 – 10/31/2019

Universe: United States of America. Import values and import tariffs.

Data Type(s): administrative records data

Collection Notes: United States of America, import values and import tariffs, by foreign trade partner, product and month from January 2016 to October 2019.

Methodology

Response Rate: Administrative records data.

Sampling: N/A

Data Source: United States Census Bureau.

Collection Mode(s): other

Unit(s) of Observation: Importer-Exporter-Product-Year

Geographic Unit: Importer-Exporter

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Published Versions

V1 [2024-03-01]

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