Data and Code for: Populist Leaders and the Economy
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Manuel Funke, Kiel Institute for the World Economy; Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Sciences Po Paris; Christoph Trebesch, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Version: View help for Version V1
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLE | 11/16/2023 08:28:AM |
Project Citation:
Funke, Manuel, Schularick, Moritz, and Trebesch, Christoph. Data and Code for: Populist Leaders and the Economy. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-11-22. https://doi.org/10.3886/E184362V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than
25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies
perform under populist leaders? We build a new long run crosscountry database to study the macroeconomic history of populism.
We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900
to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After
15 years, GDP per capita is 10% lower compared to a plausible
non-populist counterfactual. Economic disintegration, decreasing
macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically
go hand in hand with populist rule.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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populism;
institutions;
protectionism
JEL Classification:
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E60 Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General
N10 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative
P16 Capitalist Systems: Political Economy
E60 Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General
N10 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative
P16 Capitalist Systems: Political Economy
Geographic Coverage:
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Global
Time Period(s):
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1900 – 2020
Collection Date(s):
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1/1/2017 – 7/7/2023
Universe:
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Political leaders in 60 countries between 1900 and 2020
Data Type(s):
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aggregate data
Methodology
Data Source:
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Bank of Korea.
2023. Producer Price Index (All, 1910~1964). Bank of Korea Economic Statistics
System (ECOS). Seoul, South Korea. https://ecos.bok.or.kr (accessed July
6, 2023).
Banks, A.S., K.A. Wilson. 2021. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive. Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. https://www.cntsdata.com. 2021 Edition (accessed January 18, 2022). Barro, R.J., J.F. Ursúa. 2010.
Barro-Ursua Macroeconomic Data. https://scholar.harvard.edu/barro/data_sets (accessed August 31, 2018).
Bolt, J., R. Inklaar, H. de Jong, J.L. van Zanden. 2018. Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Rebasing `Maddison': new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development. Maddison Project Working Paper No. 10. https://rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2018 (accessed January 29, 2018).
Coppedge, M., J. Gerring, C. H. Knutsen, SS. I. Lindberg, J. Teorell, N. Alizada, D. Altman, M. Bernhard, A. Cornell, M. S. Fish, L. Gastaldi, H. Gjerløw, A. Glynn, S. Grahn, A. Hicken, G. Hindle, N. Ilchenko, K. Kinzelbach, J. Krusell, K. L. Marquardt, K. McMann, V. Mechkova, J. Medzihorsky, P. Paxton, D. Pemstein, J. Pernes, O. Rydén, J. von Römer, B. Seim, R. Sigman, S.-E. Skaaning, J. Staton, A. Sundström, E. Tzelgov, Y. Wang, T. Wig, S. Wilson, D. Ziblatt, 2022, V-Dem Dataset v12. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-demdatasetcountry-year-v-dem-fullothers/ (accessed March 1, 2022).
Feenstra, R.C., R. Inklaar, M.P. Timmer. 2015. The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105 (10): 3150-3182.
Feenstra, R.C., R. Inklaar, M.P. Timmer. 2020. Penn World Table version 9.1. Groningen Growth and Development Centre. https://doi.org/10.15141/S50T0R (accessed August 7, 2020).
Fouquin, M., J. Hugot. 2016. Two Centuries of Bilateral Trade and Gravity Data: 1827-2014. CEPII Working Paper 2016-14, May, CEPII. http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=32, TRADHIST_WP, Original data set, associated with the CEPII Working Paper (accessed July 12, 2016).
Furceri, D., S.A. Hannan, J.D. Ostry, A.K. Rose. 2020. The Macroeconomy after Tariffs. Working Paper. https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/RecRes.htm (“Data set”, accessed March 6, 2019).
Goemans, H.E., K. S. Gleditsch, G. Chiozza. 2009. Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders. Journal of Peace Research, 46 (2): 269-283. https://rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm. Version 4.1 (accessed October 20, 2017).
Gygli, S., F. Haelg, N. Potrafke, J.-E. Sturm. 2019. The KOF Globalisation Index – Revisited. Review of International Organizations, 14 (3): 543-574. kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index Version KOFGI 2019 (accessed August 10, 2020).
INDEC. 2023. Índice de Precios al Consumidor GBA, base abril 2008=100. National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina. Buenos Aires, Argentina. https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Institucional-Indec-InformacionDeArchivo (accessed July 6, 2023).
INS. 2023. CPI – annual data series. National Institute of Statistics. Bucharest, Romania. https://insse.ro/cms/en/content/cpi-annual-data-series (accessed July 6, 2023).
International Monetary Fund. 2018. World Economic Outlook Database: October 2018. Inflation, average consumer prices – PCPI. imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2018/October/download-entire-database (accessed May 6, 2019).
International Monetary Fund. 2019a. Consumer Price index, All items - PCPI_IX. data.imf.org/?sk=4FFB52B2-3653-409A-B471-D47B46D904B5 (accessed May 8, 2019).
International Monetary Fund. 2019b. Fiscal Monitor. Primary net lending/borrowing (also referred as primary balance), % of GDP - GGXONLB_G01_GDP_PT. https:// imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXONLB_G01_GDP_PT@FM/ADVEC/FM_EMG/FM_LIDC (accessed March 6, 2019).
IPEA. 2023. IPA-DI - geral - índice (ago. 1994 = 100). Institute of Applied Economic Research. Brasilia, Brazil. http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/Default.aspx (accessed July 6, 2023).
Jordà, O., M. Schularick, A.M. Taylor. 2017. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts. In: M. Eichenbaum, J.A. Parker (eds.): NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Vol 31. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. https://www.macrohistory.net/database. Version R4 (accessed July 31, 2019).
Laeven, L., F. Valencia. 2020. Systemic Banking Crises Database II. IMF Economic Review, 68 (2): 307-361. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41308-020-00107-3#Sec15 (accessed September 19, 2020).
Marshall, M.G., T. Gurr. 2020. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (Dataset Users’ Manual). https://systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html. Polity5 dataset version 2018 (accessed October 5, 2020).
Mauro, P., R. Romeu, A. Binder, A. Zaman. 2013. A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy. IMF Working Paper No. 13/5, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. https://imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/FPP (accessed August 1, 2018).
Mbaye, S., M.M.M., Badia, K. Chae. 2018. Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources. IMF Working Paper No. 2018/111, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. https://imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/05/14/Global-Debt-Database-Methodology-and-Sources-45838 (accessed August 1, 2018).
National Statistics Taiwan. 2023. Time Series of Consumer Price Indices in Taiwan Area. National Statistics Republic of China (Taiwan). Taipei City, Taiwan. https://eng.stat.gov.tw/cp.aspx?n=2327 (accessed July 6, 2023).
NBS. 2023. Consumer Price Index (1978=100). National Bureau of Statistics of China. Beijing, China. https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/ (accessed July 6, 2023). Reinhart, C.M.,
K.S. Rogoff. 2009a. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. https://carmenreinhart.com/dates-for-banking-crises/ (accessed July 7, 2019).
Reinhart, C.M., K.S. Rogoff. 2009b. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. https://carmenreinhart.com/inflation/ (accessed July 7, 2019).
Reinhart, C.M., K.S. Rogoff. 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2): 573-578. https://carmenreinhart.com/debt-to-gdp-ratios/ (accessed March 5, 2019).
Solt, F. 2019. Standardized World Income Inequality Database, version 8.1, May 2019. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LM4OWF (accessed July 31, 2019).
Solt, F. 2020. Standardized World Income Inequality Database, version 8.3, May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LM4OWF (accessed May 14, 2020).
World Bank. 2019a. Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) - NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS (accessed March 6, 2019).
World Bank. 2019b. GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) - NY.GDP.PCAP.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/jobs/series/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (accessed July 31, 2019).
World Bank. 2019c. Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) - NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS (accessed March 6, 2019).
World Bank. 2020. Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products (%) - TM.TAX.MRCH.SM.AR.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.SM.AR.ZS (accessed August 10, 2020).
World Bank. 2021a. GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) - NY.GDP.PCAP.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (accessed February 15, 2022).
World Bank. 2021b. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) - SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS (accessed January 29, 2022).
World Bank. 2022a. Gross capital formation (constant 2015 US$) - NE.GDI.TOTL.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.KD (accessed May 9, 2022).
World Bank. 2022b. Households and NPISHs final consumption expenditure per capita (constant 2015 US$) - NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD (accessed June 5, 2022).
Banks, A.S., K.A. Wilson. 2021. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive. Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. https://www.cntsdata.com. 2021 Edition (accessed January 18, 2022). Barro, R.J., J.F. Ursúa. 2010.
Barro-Ursua Macroeconomic Data. https://scholar.harvard.edu/barro/data_sets (accessed August 31, 2018).
Bolt, J., R. Inklaar, H. de Jong, J.L. van Zanden. 2018. Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Rebasing `Maddison': new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development. Maddison Project Working Paper No. 10. https://rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2018 (accessed January 29, 2018).
Coppedge, M., J. Gerring, C. H. Knutsen, SS. I. Lindberg, J. Teorell, N. Alizada, D. Altman, M. Bernhard, A. Cornell, M. S. Fish, L. Gastaldi, H. Gjerløw, A. Glynn, S. Grahn, A. Hicken, G. Hindle, N. Ilchenko, K. Kinzelbach, J. Krusell, K. L. Marquardt, K. McMann, V. Mechkova, J. Medzihorsky, P. Paxton, D. Pemstein, J. Pernes, O. Rydén, J. von Römer, B. Seim, R. Sigman, S.-E. Skaaning, J. Staton, A. Sundström, E. Tzelgov, Y. Wang, T. Wig, S. Wilson, D. Ziblatt, 2022, V-Dem Dataset v12. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-demdatasetcountry-year-v-dem-fullothers/ (accessed March 1, 2022).
Feenstra, R.C., R. Inklaar, M.P. Timmer. 2015. The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105 (10): 3150-3182.
Feenstra, R.C., R. Inklaar, M.P. Timmer. 2020. Penn World Table version 9.1. Groningen Growth and Development Centre. https://doi.org/10.15141/S50T0R (accessed August 7, 2020).
Fouquin, M., J. Hugot. 2016. Two Centuries of Bilateral Trade and Gravity Data: 1827-2014. CEPII Working Paper 2016-14, May, CEPII. http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=32, TRADHIST_WP, Original data set, associated with the CEPII Working Paper (accessed July 12, 2016).
Furceri, D., S.A. Hannan, J.D. Ostry, A.K. Rose. 2020. The Macroeconomy after Tariffs. Working Paper. https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/RecRes.htm (“Data set”, accessed March 6, 2019).
Goemans, H.E., K. S. Gleditsch, G. Chiozza. 2009. Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders. Journal of Peace Research, 46 (2): 269-283. https://rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm. Version 4.1 (accessed October 20, 2017).
Gygli, S., F. Haelg, N. Potrafke, J.-E. Sturm. 2019. The KOF Globalisation Index – Revisited. Review of International Organizations, 14 (3): 543-574. kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index Version KOFGI 2019 (accessed August 10, 2020).
INDEC. 2023. Índice de Precios al Consumidor GBA, base abril 2008=100. National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina. Buenos Aires, Argentina. https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Institucional-Indec-InformacionDeArchivo (accessed July 6, 2023).
INS. 2023. CPI – annual data series. National Institute of Statistics. Bucharest, Romania. https://insse.ro/cms/en/content/cpi-annual-data-series (accessed July 6, 2023).
International Monetary Fund. 2018. World Economic Outlook Database: October 2018. Inflation, average consumer prices – PCPI. imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2018/October/download-entire-database (accessed May 6, 2019).
International Monetary Fund. 2019a. Consumer Price index, All items - PCPI_IX. data.imf.org/?sk=4FFB52B2-3653-409A-B471-D47B46D904B5 (accessed May 8, 2019).
International Monetary Fund. 2019b. Fiscal Monitor. Primary net lending/borrowing (also referred as primary balance), % of GDP - GGXONLB_G01_GDP_PT. https:// imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXONLB_G01_GDP_PT@FM/ADVEC/FM_EMG/FM_LIDC (accessed March 6, 2019).
IPEA. 2023. IPA-DI - geral - índice (ago. 1994 = 100). Institute of Applied Economic Research. Brasilia, Brazil. http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/Default.aspx (accessed July 6, 2023).
Jordà, O., M. Schularick, A.M. Taylor. 2017. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts. In: M. Eichenbaum, J.A. Parker (eds.): NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Vol 31. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. https://www.macrohistory.net/database. Version R4 (accessed July 31, 2019).
Laeven, L., F. Valencia. 2020. Systemic Banking Crises Database II. IMF Economic Review, 68 (2): 307-361. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41308-020-00107-3#Sec15 (accessed September 19, 2020).
Marshall, M.G., T. Gurr. 2020. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (Dataset Users’ Manual). https://systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html. Polity5 dataset version 2018 (accessed October 5, 2020).
Mauro, P., R. Romeu, A. Binder, A. Zaman. 2013. A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy. IMF Working Paper No. 13/5, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. https://imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/FPP (accessed August 1, 2018).
Mbaye, S., M.M.M., Badia, K. Chae. 2018. Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources. IMF Working Paper No. 2018/111, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. https://imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/05/14/Global-Debt-Database-Methodology-and-Sources-45838 (accessed August 1, 2018).
National Statistics Taiwan. 2023. Time Series of Consumer Price Indices in Taiwan Area. National Statistics Republic of China (Taiwan). Taipei City, Taiwan. https://eng.stat.gov.tw/cp.aspx?n=2327 (accessed July 6, 2023).
NBS. 2023. Consumer Price Index (1978=100). National Bureau of Statistics of China. Beijing, China. https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/ (accessed July 6, 2023). Reinhart, C.M.,
K.S. Rogoff. 2009a. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. https://carmenreinhart.com/dates-for-banking-crises/ (accessed July 7, 2019).
Reinhart, C.M., K.S. Rogoff. 2009b. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. https://carmenreinhart.com/inflation/ (accessed July 7, 2019).
Reinhart, C.M., K.S. Rogoff. 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2): 573-578. https://carmenreinhart.com/debt-to-gdp-ratios/ (accessed March 5, 2019).
Solt, F. 2019. Standardized World Income Inequality Database, version 8.1, May 2019. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LM4OWF (accessed July 31, 2019).
Solt, F. 2020. Standardized World Income Inequality Database, version 8.3, May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LM4OWF (accessed May 14, 2020).
World Bank. 2019a. Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) - NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS (accessed March 6, 2019).
World Bank. 2019b. GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) - NY.GDP.PCAP.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/jobs/series/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (accessed July 31, 2019).
World Bank. 2019c. Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) - NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS (accessed March 6, 2019).
World Bank. 2020. Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products (%) - TM.TAX.MRCH.SM.AR.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.SM.AR.ZS (accessed August 10, 2020).
World Bank. 2021a. GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) - NY.GDP.PCAP.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (accessed February 15, 2022).
World Bank. 2021b. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) - SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS (accessed January 29, 2022).
World Bank. 2022a. Gross capital formation (constant 2015 US$) - NE.GDI.TOTL.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.KD (accessed May 9, 2022).
World Bank. 2022b. Households and NPISHs final consumption expenditure per capita (constant 2015 US$) - NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD. World Development Indicators, The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD (accessed June 5, 2022).
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