Data and Code for: "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population"

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Charles I. Jones, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  ChadMatlab 08/22/2022 06:42:PM
EqmTransitionDynamics.m text/x-matlab 1.5 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM
FertilityData.m text/x-matlab 2.5 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM
MasterProgram_EP.m text/x-matlab 2.1 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM
OptimalDynamics.m text/x-matlab 8.6 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM
ReadMe.md text/x-web-markdown 3.4 KB 08/22/2022 12:52:PM
ReadMe.pdf application/pdf 60.9 KB 08/22/2022 01:17:PM
SetParameters.m text/x-matlab 4.2 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM
ShowParameters.m text/x-objcsrc 1.3 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM
StylizedSpiral.m text/x-matlab 1.6 KB 08/01/2022 10:24:AM

Project Citation: 

Jones, Charles I. Data and Code for: “The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-10-19. https://doi.org/10.3886/E176683V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Replication files for this paper. 
ABSTRACT: In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
      O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General


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V1 [2022-10-19]

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