Data and Code for: "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population"
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Charles I. Jones, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business
Version: View help for Version V1
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Project Citation:
Jones, Charles I. Data and Code for: “The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-10-19. https://doi.org/10.3886/E176683V1
Project Description
Summary:
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ABSTRACT: In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy.
ABSTRACT: In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy.
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
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