Data and Code for: The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Nicole Maestas, Harvard University. Harvard Medical School. Department of Health Care Policy; Kathleen Mullen, University of Southern California; David Powell, RAND

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
DATA			03/16/2023 02:59:PM
cleandata			03/01/2023 03:27:PM
code			03/21/2023 12:50:PM
output			03/01/2023 03:26:PM
rawdata			03/16/2023 12:55:PM
README.pdf	application/pdf	849.4 KB	03/21/2023 08:50:AM

Project Citation:

Maestas, Nicole, Mullen, Kathleen, and Powell, David. Data and Code for: The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-03-27. https://doi.org/10.3886/E173781V1

Project Description

Summary: Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita GDP by 5.5%. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010.

Funding Sources: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: population aging; demographic change; GDP growth

JEL Classification:
      J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
      J14 Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination
      J23 Labor Demand
      J26 Retirement; Retirement Policies
      O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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Published Versions

V1 [2023-03-27]

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