Data and Code for: The Price of Nails Since 1695: A Window Into Economic Change

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Daniel E Sichel, Wellesley College and NBER

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Sichel JEP Nails Historical Price DECOMPOSITION Sep21.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	504.7 KB	01/23/2022 09:15:AM
Sichel JEP Nails PRICES Data Figures Sep21.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	188.9 KB	01/20/2022 07:22:AM
Sichel JEP Nails QUANTITIES Data Figures Sep21.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	40.3 KB	11/06/2021 12:08:PM
Sichel JEP Nails README.pdf	application/pdf	45.9 KB	01/23/2022 09:06:AM
nails_Sichel_Jan22_APPENDIX.pdf	application/pdf	488.3 KB	01/23/2022 08:42:AM

Project Citation:

Sichel, Daniel E. Data and Code for: The Price of Nails Since 1695: A Window Into Economic Change. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-02-08. https://doi.org/10.3886/E154101V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper focuses on the price of nails since 1695 and the proximate source of changes in those prices. Why nails? They are a basic manufactured product whose form and quality have changed relatively little over the last three centuries, yet the process for producing them has changed dramatically. Accordingly, nails provide a useful prism through which to examine a wide range of economic and technological developments that touch on multiple areas of both micro- and macroeconomics. Several conclusions emerge. First, from the late 1700s to the mid 20th century real nail prices fell by a factor of about 10 relative to overall consumer prices. These declines had important effects on downstream industries, most notably construction. Second, while declining materials prices contribute to reductions in nail prices, the largest proximate source of the decline during this period was multifactor productivity growth in nail manufacturing, highlighting the role of the specialization of labor and re-organization of production processes. Third, the share of nails in GDP dropped back from 0.4 percent of GDP in 1810—comparable to today’s share of household purchases of personal computers—to a de minimis share more recently; accordingly, nails played a bigger role in American life in that earlier period. Finally, real nail prices have increased since the mid 20th century, reflecting in part an upturn in materials prices and a shift toward specialty nails in the wake of import competition, though the introduction of nail guns partly offset these increases for the price of installed nails.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Nails; Historical prices; Manufacturing; Price Measurement; Economic Change

JEL Classification:
      L61 Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
      N61 Economic History: Manufacturing and Construction: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
      N62 Economic History: Manufacturing and Construction: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
      O14 Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
      O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

Geographic Coverage: US

Time Period(s): 1695 – 2018

Collection Date(s): 2011 – 2021

Universe: Price of nails
Some analysis of quantities as well
Price decomposition into proximate sources of price change

Data Type(s): aggregate data; census/enumeration data; other

Methodology

Data Source: Described in detail in online Data Appendix that is part of this replication package.

Unit(s) of Observation: Price of nails, cents/nail. From various original units in terms of dollars or cents and number of pound or nails.

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Published Versions

V1 [2022-02-08]

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