Measuring the COVID-19 Mortality Burden in the United States: A Microsimulation Study

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Julian Reif, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Hanke Heun-Johnson, University of Southern California; Bryan Tysinger, University of Southern California; Darius Lakdawalla, University of Southern California

Version:  View help for Version V1

Version Title:  View help for Version Title V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
Excess_Deaths_Associated_with_COVID-19.csv text/csv 6 MB 08/20/2021 01:39:PM
excess_deaths_age_race_sex.csv text/csv 20.5 MB 08/20/2021 01:37:PM
new25s_default.dta application/x-stata-dta 8.3 MB 08/20/2021 01:36:PM
nursing_home_deaths.csv text/csv 437.8 MB 08/20/2021 01:44:PM
stock_psid_2009.dta application/x-stata-dta 7.5 MB 02/09/2021 07:29:AM

Project Citation: 

Reif, Julian, Heun-Johnson, Hanke, Tysinger, Bryan, and Lakdawalla, Darius. Measuring the COVID-19 Mortality Burden in the United States: A Microsimulation Study. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-09-20. https://doi.org/10.3886/E147965V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
PSID input data files are provided to replicate analyses in publication: Reif J, Heun-Johnson H, Tysinger B, Lakdawalla D. Measuring the COVID-19 mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation study. Ann Intern Med. 21 September 2021. [Epub ahead of print]. doi:10.7326/M21-2239 (https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-2239). These files are needed to run the Future Adult Model (FAM), a microsimulation developed and maintained by the Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation within the Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California.

Programs to run FAM and FEM microsimulations for this project are publicly available from our Subversion repository: https://schweb.lahrc.lahealthresearchcloud.org/svn/AIM_covid/.


Three additional supporting files with data on excess/COVID-19 deaths from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are provided in csv format. 

Abstract:
Background: Fully assessing the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic requires measuring years of life lost (YLLs) and accounting for quality-of-life differences. Objective: To measure YLLs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost from the COVID-19 pandemic, by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and comorbidity. Design: State-transition microsimulation model. Data Sources: Health and Retirement Study, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, data on excess deaths from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and nursing home death counts from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Target Population: U.S. population aged 25 years and older. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Individual. Intervention: COVID-19 pandemic through 13 March 2021. Outcome Measures: YLLs and QALYs lost per 10 000 persons in the population. The estimates account for the age, sex, and race/ethnicity of decedents, along with obesity, smoking behavior, lung disease, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, stroke, hypertension, dementia, and nursing home residence. Results of Base-Case Analysis: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 6.62 million QALYs lost (9.08 million YLLs) through 13 March 2021, with 3.6 million (54%) lost by those aged 25 to 64 years. The greatest toll was on Black and Hispanic communities, especially among men aged 65 years or older, who lost 1138 and 1371 QALYs, respectively, per 10 000 persons. Absent the pandemic, 38% of decedents would have had average or above-average life expectancies for their subgroup defined by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Accounting for uncertainty in risk factors for death from COVID-19 yielded similar results. Limitation: Estimates may vary depending on assumptions about mortality and quality-of-life projections. Conclusion: Beyond excess deaths alone, the COVID-19 pandemic imposed a greater life expectancy burden on persons aged 25 to 64 years, including those with average or above-average life expectancies, and a disproportionate burden on Black and Hispanic communities.


Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources United States Department of Health and Human Services. National Institutes of Health. National Institute on Aging (1R01AG062277)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms PSID
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States of America
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 3/22/2020 – 3/13/2021
Universe:  View help for Universe US population ages 25+
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) survey data

Methodology

Weights:  View help for Weights A weight variable has been included
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation Individuals
Geographic Unit:  View help for Geographic Unit National

Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

V1 [2021-09-20]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.