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Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99

Name: Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99
Published: 2021-08-18
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Bram Van Besouw, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Daniel R. Curtis, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
EWM_ReplicationFinal.do	text/plain	47.4 KB	08/17/2021 11:09:PM
EWM_data-sources.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	165.5 KB	08/17/2021 11:08:PM
EWM_workfile.dta	application/x-stata-dta	1.9 MB	08/17/2021 11:08:PM

Project Citation:

Van Besouw, Bram, and Curtis, Daniel R. Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-08-18. https://doi.org/10.3886/E147721V1

Project Description

Summary: Early modern warfare in western Europe exposed civilian populations to violence, hardship, and disease. Despite limited empirical evidence, the ensuing mortality effects are regularly invoked by economic historians to explain patterns of economic development. Using newly collected data on adult burials and war events in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, we estimate early modern war-driven mortality in localities close to military activity. We find a clear and significant general mortality effect consistent with the localized presence of diseases. During years with major epidemic disease outbreaks, we demonstrate a stronger mortality effect. However, this effect is spatially more variable during epidemics, with excess mortality not monotonically declining with distance from warfare. Given the omnipresence of warfare in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, war-driven mortality was remarkably constant rather than a sharp discontinuity. The economic impact of warfare likely played out over the long term rather than driven by sudden large mortality spikes creating rapid structural change.

Funding Sources: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (016.Vidi.185.046)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Warfare; mortality; epidemic; urbanization

Geographic Coverage: Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg. (The Low Countries)

Time Period(s): 1620 – 1699 (Seventeenth century)

Methodology

Data Source: Data sources can be found in the file 'EWM_data-sources.xlsx'. Further information can be found in the article 'Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99'.

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Published Versions

V2 [2021-08-18]

V1 [2021-08-18]

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