Data and Code for: "Searching for a Better Life: Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords"
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Andre Groeger, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Tobias Heidland, Kiel University / IfW
Version: View help for Version V1
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text/x-log | 222.3 KB | 11/17/2020 10:16:PM |
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application/x-stata | 498.5 KB | 11/17/2020 10:16:PM |
Project Citation:
Groeger, Andre, and Heidland, Tobias. Data and Code for: “Searching for a Better Life: Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords.” Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2020-11-18. https://doi.org/10.3886/E126881V1
Project Description
Summary:
View help for Summary
Migration data remains scarce, particularly in the context of developing
countries. We demonstrate how geo-referenced online search data can be
used to measure migration intentions in origin countries and predict
migration flows. Our approach provides strong additional predictive
power for international migration flows when compared to reference
models from the migration and trade literature. We provide evidence,
based on survey data, that our measures partly reflect genuine migration
intentions and that they outperform any of the established predictors
of migration flows in terms of predictive power, especially in the
bilateral within-dimension. Our findings contribute to the literature by
(1) providing a novel way for the measurement of migration intentions,
(2) allowing real-time predictions of current migration flows ahead of
official statistics, and (3) improving the performance of conventional
models of migration flows. (JEL-codes: F22, C82, J61, O15)
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