Data and Code for: "Searching for a Better Life: Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords"

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Andre Groeger, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Tobias Heidland, Kiel University / IfW

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
replication_GWP_part.log text/x-log 222.3 KB 11/17/2020 10:16:PM
replication_SearchingForABetterLife_FINAL.do text/x-stata-syntax 23.4 KB 11/17/2020 10:16:PM
replication_bilateral.dta application/x-stata 16.6 MB 11/17/2020 10:16:PM
replication_unilateral.dta application/x-stata 498.5 KB 11/17/2020 10:16:PM

Project Citation: 

Groeger, Andre, and Heidland, Tobias. Data and Code for: “Searching for a Better Life: Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords.” Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2020-11-18. https://doi.org/10.3886/E126881V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Migration data remains scarce, particularly in the context of developing countries. We demonstrate how geo-referenced online search data can be used to measure migration intentions in origin countries and predict migration flows. Our approach provides strong additional predictive power for international migration flows when compared to reference models from the migration and trade literature. We provide evidence, based on survey data, that our measures partly reflect genuine migration intentions and that they outperform any of the established predictors of migration flows in terms of predictive power, especially in the bilateral within-dimension. Our findings contribute to the literature by (1) providing a novel way for the measurement of migration intentions, (2) allowing real-time predictions of current migration flows ahead of official statistics, and (3) improving the performance of conventional models of migration flows. (JEL-codes: F22, C82, J61, O15)



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V1 [2020-11-18]

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