Replication data for: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Carmen M. Reinhart; Vincent Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch
Version: View help for Version V1
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Project Citation:
Reinhart, Carmen M., Reinhart, Vincent, and Trebesch, Christoph. Replication data for: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2016. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E113437V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F21 International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements
F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F44 International Business Cycles
N20 Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative
Q02 Commodity Markets
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F21 International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements
F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F44 International Business Cycles
N20 Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative
Q02 Commodity Markets
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