Replication data for: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Carmen M. Reinhart; Vincent Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
P2016_1014_data			10/12/2019 11:00:AM
LICENSE.txt	text/plain	14.6 KB	10/12/2019 07:00:AM

Project Citation:

Reinhart, Carmen M., Reinhart, Vincent, and Trebesch, Christoph. Replication data for: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2016. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E113437V1

Project Description

Summary: Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      F21 International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements
      F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
      F44 International Business Cycles
      N20 Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative
      Q02 Commodity Markets

Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.