Replication data for: How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries

Summary:  View help for Summary We test whether good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected in a large panel of democracies. We find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries independent of income level, level of democracy, or government or electoral system. In developed countries and old democracies, deficits in election years or over the term of office reduce reelection probabilities. Higher growth rates over the term raise reelection probabilities only in developing countries and new democracies. Low inflation is rewarded by voters only in developed countries. These effects are both statistically significant and quite substantial quantitatively. (JEL D72, E62, H62, O47)

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Elections; Economics; Budgets Deficits; Economic Growth.; Fiscal; National Account; Political Economics

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      H62 National Deficit; Surplus
      O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Cyprus, Malaysia, Paraguay, Portugal, Iceland, Solomon Islands, Greece, Austria, Mongolia, Slovak Republic, El Salvador, Mali, Panama, Luxembourg, Brazil, Guatemala, Guyana, Slovenia, Chile, Nepal, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, Hungary, Japan, Moldova, Mauritius, India, New Zealand, Canada, Turkey, Belgium, Finland, South Africa, Italy, Honduras, Georgia, Jamaica, Peru, Germany, Fiji, Venezuela., United States, Madagascar, Thailand, Bolivia, Russia, Costa Rica, Papua new Guinie, Netherlands, Sweden, Pakistan, Ireland, Poland, France, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Korea, Trinidad & Tobago, Romania, Sri Lanka, Uruguay, Philippines, United Kingdom, Spain, Czech Republic, Nicaragua, Norway, Dominican Republic, Denmark, Mexico, Israel, Australia, Estonia

Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1960 – 2003

Universe:  View help for Universe 347 electoral campaigns in democratic countries.

Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) administrative records data; text; observational data

Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes The key political variable "reelect" was based on information from the "World Political Leaders 1945-2005 database of Zarate's Political Collections" (ZPC) and from the "World Statesmen online encyclopedia". Information on election dates and results are taken from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) dataset "Voter Turnout Since 1945" and from the International Foundation for Election Systems ELECTION GUIDE dataset; it is supplemented by Binghamton University's Election Results archive.

Data Source:  View help for Data Source Fiscal Data are taken from the "International Ficial Statistics" (IFS). National account data are taken from the "World Bank's World Development Indicators" (WDI) and "International Ficial Statistics" (IFS). Information on the political structure of countries, their electoral system, and additional political variables is constructed using the "World Bank's database of Political Institutions" (DPI). Data on the level of democracy are taken from the "Polity (IV) dataset at the University of Maryland".

Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation Reelection of country leaders.,