Replication data for: Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Robert B. Barsky; Eric R. Sims
Version: View help for Version V1
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Project Citation:
Barsky, Robert B., and Sims, Eric R. Replication data for: Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2012. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-11. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112525V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Innovations to consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity far into the future. Does this reflect a causal effect of animal spirits on economic activity, or news about exogenous future productivity received by consumers? Using indirect inference, we study the impulse responses to confidence innovations in conjunction with an appropriately augmented New Keynesian
model. While news, animal spirits, and pure noise all contribute to confidence innovations, the relationship between confidence and subsequent activity is almost entirely reflective of the news component. Confidence innovations are well characterized as noisy measures
of changes in expected productivity growth over a relatively long horizon. (JEL D12, D83, D84, E12)
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
D84 Expectations; Speculations
E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
D84 Expectations; Speculations
E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
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