2018 Montana Election Surveys (MSU-MTN)

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) David Parker, Montana State University; Eric Raile, Montana State University; Sara Guenther, Montana State University; Elizabeth Shanahan, Montana State University

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
2018_MT_Elections_Codebook_RELEASE.pdf	application/pdf	299.6 KB	07/11/2019 08:34:AM
2018_MT_Elections_Data_RELEASE.dta	application/x-stata	593.9 KB	07/17/2019 08:37:AM
2018_MT_Elections_Data_RELEASE.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	1.3 MB	07/10/2019 10:00:PM
2018_MT_Elections_Frequencies_RELEASE.pdf	application/pdf	4.4 MB	07/10/2019 09:55:PM
2018_MT_Elections_Methods_RELEASE.pdf	application/pdf	90.2 KB	07/11/2019 07:46:AM

Project Citation:

Parker, David, Raile, Eric, Guenther, Sara, and Shanahan, Elizabeth. 2018 Montana Election Surveys (MSU-MTN). Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-07-22. https://doi.org/10.3886/E110805V1

Project Description

Summary: Recommended citation:
Parker, D., Raile, E., Guenther, S., & Shanahan, E. (2019). 2018 Montana Election Surveys (MSU-MTN) [Data file]. Retrieved from https://www.openicpsr.org

These polls were funded jointly by the Montana Television Network (MTN) and Montana State University (MSU).

The MSU-MTN pre-election survey was conducted by the Human Ecology Learning & Problem Solving (HELPS) Lab of Montana State University-Bozeman between September 15 and October 6, 2018. The population for the poll was Montana voters who registered by August 14, 2018. The sample was stratified by state House districts, and then a random sample of 10,400 voters was drawn proportionally from these strata. Sampled individuals received a questionnaire by mail and were asked to return the questionnaire via a self-addressed stamped envelope. Respondents returned 2,079 surveys, a response rate of slightly over 20% based on 10,215 deliverable addresses.

The population size was 686,791 registered voters. This resulted in a margin of error (MOE) of approximately +/- 2 percentage points. Please note that this figure is an overall approximation given sampling stratification and different response options and response patterns for specific questions. Using a raking method, the data were weighted by age, media market, marital status by gender, and education to match U.S. Census Bureau data on registered Montana voters. Data were also weighted on 2016 presidential vote choice to match vote returns reported by the Montana Secretary of State.

The MSU-MTN post-election survey was similarly conducted by the HELPS Lab of Montana State University-Bozeman between November 8 and December 14, 2018. Researchers used a panel design, meaning they re-surveyed individuals who had completed the pre-election questionnaire. Respondents returned 1,424 completed questionnaires for a response rate of approximately 68%. The population of registered voters at the time of the election was 711, 844, which produced an overall MOE of approximately +/- 2.6 percentage points. The weights remained the same except for replacing 2016 presidential vote choice with 2018 Senate vote choice.

Funding Sources: Montana State University - Bozeman; Montana Television Network

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Election; US Congress; Montana; Policies; Politics

Geographic Coverage: Montana

Time Period(s): 9/15/2018 – 10/6/2018 (Fall 2018); 11/8/2018 – 12/14/2018 (Fall 2018)

Collection Date(s): 9/15/2018 – 10/6/2018 (Fall 2018); 11/8/2018 – 12/14/2018 (Fall 2018)

Universe: Montana adults registered to vote as of August 14, 2018

Data Type(s): survey data

Methodology

Response Rate: Pre-election survey: 20.35%
Post-election survey (panel): 68.49%

Sampling: The population for the poll was Montana voters who registered by August 14, 2018. For the pre-election survey, the sample was stratified by state House districts, and then a random sample of 10,400 voters was drawn proportionally from these strata. For the post-election survey, researchers used a panel design, meaning they re-surveyed individuals who had completed the pre-election questionnaire.

Data Source: Surveys of Montana registered voters

Collection Mode(s): mail questionnaire; web-based survey

Weights: Using a raking method, the data were weighted by age, media market, marital status by gender, and education to match U.S. Census Bureau data on registered Montana voters. Pre-election data were also weighted on 2016 presidential vote choice to match vote returns reported by the Montana Secretary of State. The pre-election weight in the dataset is labeled prewgt. For the post-election survey, the weights remained the same except for replacing 2016 presidential vote choice with 2018 Senate vote choice. The post-election weight is included in the dataset as postwgt.

Unit(s) of Observation: Individual persons

Geographic Unit: State

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-07-22]

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