Code for: Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Chryssi Giannitsarou, University of Cambridge; Stephen Kissler, Harvard University. School of Public Health; Flavio Toxvaerd, University of Cambridge

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
README.pdf application/pdf 83.5 KB 11/10/2020 11:56:AM
T100_d120_TVC10_PI09.mat application/x-matlab-data 7.9 MB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T100_d30_TVC10_PI09.mat application/x-matlab-data 8 MB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T100_d65_TVC10_PI09.mat application/x-matlab-data 8 MB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T100_d65_TVC10_PI09_a0.mat application/x-matlab-data 8 MB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T100_d65_TVC10_PI09_a104.mat application/x-matlab-data 8.1 MB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T100_d65_TVC10_PI09_a26.mat application/x-matlab-data 7.9 MB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T2_d65_TVC10_PI09.mat application/x-matlab-data 183.5 KB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T4_d65_TVC10_PI09.mat application/x-matlab-data 364.5 KB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM
T6_d65_TVC10_PI09.mat application/x-matlab-data 540.7 KB 11/10/2020 11:57:AM

Project Citation: 

Giannitsarou, Chryssi, Kissler, Stephen , and Toxvaerd, Flavio. Code for: Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2021. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-08-19. https://doi.org/10.3886/E122761V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
The project offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.


Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Economic epidemiology; COVID-19; Social distancing; Waning immunity; Infection control; SEIRS
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E61 Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
      I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) program source code


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Published Versions

V1 [2021-08-19]

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